Live Indicator

Travel Market Pulse

Three signals that tell you whether the conditions for booking are improving or deteriorating — consumer confidence, travel inflation, and real spending data.

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SIGNAL 1 OF 3

Consumer Confidence

The GfK Consumer Confidence Index measures how optimistic UK households feel about their personal finances and the wider economy. Travel is a discretionary purchase — confidence leads bookings.

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Latest reading

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vs previous month

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vs 12 months ago

How to read this: the index runs from around −40 (very pessimistic) to +5 (very optimistic). Zero is the neutral line. What matters is direction and where we are relative to recent history.

Source: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM Frequency: Monthly Verified from: November 2018

SIGNAL 2 OF 3

Holiday Inflation vs General CPI

Package holiday prices have historically inflated faster than general goods and services. When the gap widens, operators face pressure from both cost and value perception.

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Holiday CPI, annual rate

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General CPI, same period

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Holiday premium

How to read this: both lines show the annual rate of change (%). When the burgundy line sits above the grey line, holidays are inflating faster than the broader basket.

Source: ONS Consumer Price Index (series D7O7, D7BT) Frequency: Monthly Series start: January 1994

SIGNAL 3 OF 3

Consumer Travel Spend

The ONS Revolut spending tracker measures real card transactions in the travel category, indexed to the 2023 average. It is one of the most timely demand signals available for UK travel.

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Latest index

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vs 2023 average

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vs same week last year

How to read this: 100 = the 2023 average spending level. Values above 100 indicate travel spending above that baseline. The index captures the collapse in early 2020 and the subsequent recovery.

Source: ONS Real-Time Indicators (Revolut debit card data, Travel sector) Frequency: Weekly Baseline: 2023 average = 100

Part of the Travel Economics toolkit by SPIKE. Data sourced directly from ONS and GfK; refreshed periodically — see date above. Consumer confidence history prior to November 2018 is not currently verified and is omitted from this view.

Part of the Travel Economics toolkit by SPIKE. Data updated periodically from public sources.