The GfK Consumer Confidence Index measures how optimistic UK households feel about their personal finances and the wider economy. Travel is a discretionary purchase — confidence leads bookings.

How to read this: The index runs from around −40 (very pessimistic) to +5 (very optimistic). Zero is the neutral line. The UK has spent most of the last 50 years below zero — what matters is direction and where we are relative to recent history.

Package holiday prices have historically inflated faster than general goods and services. When the gap widens, operators face pressure from both cost and value perception.

How to read this: Both lines show the annual rate of change (%). When the burgundy line sits above the grey line, holidays are inflating faster than the broader basket. The gap between them — the differential — is shown as a shaded area.

The ONS Revolut spending tracker measures real card transactions in the travel category, indexed to a pre-pandemic baseline of 100. It is one of the most timely demand signals available for UK travel.

How to read this: 100 = pre-pandemic baseline (early 2020). Values above 100 indicate travel spending above the pre-pandemic level. The index captures the collapse in March 2020 and the subsequent recovery. Seasonal peaks (summer) and troughs (January) are normal.